In its latest weekly briefing, EXANTE flags that Nvidia has once again delivered a quarter that left little room for doubt.
Revenue came in at $81.6bn, up 85% year-on-year, with earnings per share of $1.87 beating analyst consensus of $1.75.
The data centre segment, which now accounts for 92% of total revenue at $75.2bn, continues to define the company's entire financial identity, fuelled by hyperscaler spending, sovereign AI programmes, and a broadening enterprise customer base.
Nvidia CFO Colette Kress noted that hyperscalers represented just 50% of data centre revenue last quarter, with the balance split across sovereign, enterprise, and cloud-native customers, a diversification that strengthens the longer-term demand thesis considerably.
Forward guidance of approximately $91bn for Q2, well ahead of the $87.2bn consensus, signals that the current Blackwell architecture cycle has more runway than markets had priced in.
Management authorised an $80bn share buyback and raised the quarterly dividend 25-fold, from $0.01 to $0.25, a striking signal of confidence in the durability of its free cash flow.
The one outstanding question, as EXANTE's briefing highlights, is whether the effective exclusion of China, a market management has valued at $50bn annually, becomes a more material constraint as the cycle matures.
Meanwhile, the macro environment is becoming considerably less accommodating. The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% last month, but the decision exposed the deepest internal divisions within the FOMC in more than three decades, an 8-4 split that reflects genuine uncertainty about which direction rates move next. Minutes released this week showed a majority of officials believe tightening may be warranted if inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target.
The bond market has moved decisively. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.197%, its highest level since July 2007, while the 10-year climbed to 4.687%. Consumer prices rose 3.8% year-on-year in April, with gasoline up 28.4%, and core PCE is tracking at 3.2%, some 120 basis points above target.
For more insights, read the full weekly brief here.